The slowdown in mortality improvement rates 2011–2017: a multi-country analysis

Abstract Mortality rates have been falling or ‘improving’ in many demographically developed countries since the 1950s. However, there has a slowdown 2010 speed of improvement and this phenomenon particularly marked at ages over 50. To understand better mortality slowdown, we analysed long-run trends group using data up to 2017 from Human Database. Specifically, used statistical models parametrise historical 21 between 1965 then forecast beyond 2011. We find that experienced lower 2011–2017 than previous decade also would based on fitted prior Some Scandinavian populations bucked stalling trend, experiencing higher forecasts. conclude part 1950s 2011 expected countries, especially among men. notable 2011, compared with model forecasts, women. A few had forecast. understanding drivers behind these complex help decision makers insurance companies pension funds inform public policy.